- Posted by Christopher Estep on January 11, 2008
And I think it's going to be bust and here's why:
Mitt's pinning most of his hopes for winning Michigan on it being his "home state". That's a load of bullplop. Mitt may have been born here, but it's no more my "home state" than America is the "home country" for Mel Gibson. Mitt will always be identified with MA because, oh I don't know, he was governor! My daughter was born in Tallahassee and we moved a few months after. Can she say that Florida is her home state? Another daughter was born in Michigan but only lived there for 2 years. Is that her home state, too?
He also thinks that name recognition will get him elected because his dad was governor there. Let me tell you something. I grew up in Michigan and spent most of my life there (24 of 41 years). I of course knew the Romney name and even then I knew that he'd been a Mormon. I can't remember why, but I did and I was a Baptist. But that's all I knew was the name. I don't remember Governor George Romney at all. That's probably because I was only 2 when his term ended. And to be honest Romney's term as Secretary of HUD until 1972 doesn't stick in my mind.
But won't having the name help? Ask Ronna Romney, his ex-sister-in-law who tried to capitalize on her married name (though already divorced) to run for the Senate? She lost to a 1-term senator who had never held elected office.
So who does Mitt think that his name being associated with Michigan will make someone choose him? As I said, I'm 41 and I don't remember him at all. I remember Bill Milliken then Jim Blanchard, but that's it before we entered the administration of a real governor, John Engler (who remains one of my favorite politicians of all time). But Romney? His name alone doesn't do anything for me and I'm 41. But then, if Ron Reagan were running for POTUS, his name wouldn't help there either. Basically, the only people who are going to remember George Romney are senior citizens and even if every Republican senior came out for Mitt, it wouldn't be enough to balance out everyone 55 and younger who has no idea what George Romney did.
Mitt does have one thing going for him in Michigan that his father's name does help with. People do know that his dad was the head of American Motors. Having grown up in that home certainly would have given Mitt a better understanding of the automotive industry and its unique challenges that it places on the people of Michigan, both positive and negative. Michigan voters can likely be sure that CAFE standards won't go anywhere under Romney nor would the environmentalist anti-SUV crowd have any traction for a while.
Mitt's problems aren't his Mormonism. That's a red herring. Mitt's problems are that he can't be trusted. Do I believe Romney would keep his word when he says how he would govern? I actually do. That's where his Mormonism sways me. I think Romney's a very good and honorable man. But though he will live up to promises doesn't mean that he passionately embraces them.
I think Romney would make a good President, ultimately. I just don't think he's the best person for the job.
But if he loses Michigan, it's over. Romney's a very good businessman. If he loses Michigan, I hope he will save his money and drop out of the race because he's done anyway. As an aside, I thought he was merely ok in the debate last night. I got tired of hearing him laugh loudly off camera every time someone said something funny though. He meandered in positions but then again, so did McCain.